Novig Rumoured To Be Raising At $2 Billion

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Last week we published Is Kalshi's Volume Real?, our look at Kalshi's record September 2026 and the Volume Incentive Program that paid traders for every contract they traded.

Check it out if you haven’t already here!

Novig are rumoured to be raising new funding at a valuation of up to $2 billion, four times the $500 million they hit eight months ago.

Most of their $105.4 million funding in total so far has come from:

To put that in context, Kalshi have raised about $2.7 billion and Polymarket about $2.9 billion across all their rounds, and both are valued above $20 billion.

Novig have raised more than any other independent prediction market we track, with ProphetX next at $35 million.

If you read our Novig piece last month, you'll know they only opened nationwide on 4th August 2026 and crossed $1 billion in notional volume on 12th September 2026.

They have kept going since, trading $484 million in the week to 3rd October 2026, up 17% on the week before.

Novig credit the Sydney Sweeney campaign for a lot of that. In the 20 days either side of its launch in early September 2026, trading volume rose nearly 94% and first-time depositors rose more than 218%.

"We have to be willing to take outsized risk relative to the size of the company, doing that in a responsible way, of course," said co-founder Jacob Fortinsky.

The round hasn't been confirmed yet, but it could be before the end of 2026.

Ingame reported Kalshi's volume in sports and combos (parlays) rose 65% to $50 billion in the 30 days to 29th September 2026, yet their share of those markets fell from 76.1% to 73.4%, and from 93.5% to 83.9% in combos alone.

Our own data shows the same thing across the nine US venues we track.

Kalshi's share of US notional volume fell from 86.0% in August 2026 to 79.6% in September 2026, even as total volume rose 64% to $76.4 billion.

Polymarket US picked up the most, going from 8.2% to 11.5%. DKeX, the prediction market exchange by DraftKings ($DKNG ( ▲ 7.37% )), went from 0.2% to 2.4%, more than ten times their August share.

None of this has slowed the money down.

Kalshi are in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at about $40 billion, close to double the $22 billion of their $1.2 billion raise in May 2026.

Cboe ($CBOE ( ▲ 1.85% )) and Robinhood ($HOOD ( ▲ 0.52% )) plan to launch KPI (key performance indicator) contracts in October 2026; yes-or-no bets on whether a company's reported numbers clear a set level.

They start with 23 US-listed companies and still need SEC approval.

If that sounds familiar, it's because prediction markets already do a version of this.

Polymarket have let traders bet on whether companies beat their quarterly earnings since a September 2025 tie-up with Stocktwits, and Kalshi list both earnings-beat markets and markets on what executives say on earnings calls.

What's different is where Cboe's contracts live.

They would be SEC-regulated binary options on Cboe's securities exchange, cleared by Cboe's own clearing house, and Robinhood customers would trade them from an ordinary brokerage account.

They also go a lot deeper than headline earnings, with Cboe's July 2026 filing covering more than 100 line items, like iPhone shipments at Apple ($AAPL ( ▼ 0.33% )) and data centre sales at Nvidia ($NVDA ( ▲ 1.45% )).

"Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs," said Steve Quirk, Robinhood's chief brokerage officer.

Kalshi want it slowed down. They wrote to the SEC in August 2026 asking it to hold off until the SEC and the CFTC agree who oversees contracts like these.

It's the same line Kalshi are walking themselves. We covered their filing with both the CFTC and the SEC in September 2026 to list perpetual futures on around 60 US stocks and ETFs, so the SEC's answer on Cboe is the next thing to watch.

The CFTC have sent two rules on prediction markets to the White House for review.

If you've been following along, this is the same fight we wrote about after the Ninth Circuit ruling in August 2026.

Kalshi's whole case against the states rests on its sports contracts being swaps, because swaps answer to the CFTC alone and state gambling laws can't touch them.

The courts haven't bought it yet, with the Ninth Circuit and then the Sixth Circuit, on 25th September 2026, both siding with the states.

If the swaps rule goes through, Kalshi and the rest of the industry would have a federal definition to take back to those same judges.

Predicted is written by Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy. Every edition, our quarterly State of Prediction Markets reports and more at predicted.co.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author's thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies, platforms, markets or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

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When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks include price volatility, loss of capital, illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. You may not be protected under financial compensation schemes typically afforded to investors dealing with regulated entities. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.