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Discussed in this piece:
Novig's first national ad
A DCM without a DCO
The billion, and which products carry it
Why the volume follows the sports calendar
A look at Novig's parlays
This piece was written and researched by Omar El Safy and edited by Pet Berisha.
Our Q2 2026 report is still up. Prediction markets traded $111 billion in the quarter, more than 2024 and 2025 combined, across 70 pages of charts, and it is free. Read below 👇
01 - Novig's first national ad, and where it ranks
Last week, on 9 September 2026, Novig's first national ad campaign went viral, the same day the NFL season opened.
Sydney Sweeney was the main star of the campaign, and her line was "No wars. No death. No politics. Just sports."
This is Novig's differentiator from Kalshi and Polymarket, which both list war, weather, elections and macro data alongside sports.
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said that Sweeney "helped craft that message", and that she was "uncomfortable" with the kind of markets other platforms carry. And now she has equity.
Since 4 August 2026, Novig has climbed to 4th in notional volume, behind Kalshi, Polymarket US and CDNA (Crypto[dot]com).
Fig. 1. Event-contract notional by US venue, log scale. 4 August to 13 September 2026, a window in which all ten venues were live and reporting every day. Source: The Prediction.
Across the ten US venues we track, $71 billion of notional changed hands over the same window, and Novig accounts for 1.6% of it.
02 - A DCM without a DCO
Fig. 2 Sixteen brands onto thirteen clearing houses. Novig is the one brand with no DCO, and it self-settles through Ludlow Exchange LLC, its own exchange.
Novig differs from its competitors in more than its product list. It is built differently under the hood.
A US prediction market usually needs two licences. A Designated Contract Market (DCM) is the exchange. It lists the contracts and matches the trades. A Derivatives Clearing Organisation (DCO) is the clearing house. It sits behind those trades, holds the collateral and makes sure winners get paid.
Novig obtained its DCM on 16 June 2026, and opened nationwide on 4 August 2026.
Novig does not have a DCO, and is the only US venue without one. Every other brand either owns a clearing house or rents one.
That works today because every Novig trade is funded in full by both sides before it exists. Nobody extends credit, so there is very little counterparty risk for a clearing house to carry.
Whether that holds as volume and customer balances grow is the open question.
03 - The billion, and which products carry it
Three days after the Sydney Sweeney ad ran, on 12 September 2026, Novig crossed $1 billion in notional trading volume.
Parlays lead that notional volume and are Novig's biggest product with 37% of everything traded. Moneylines take 32%, totals 12%, player and game props 10%, and spreads 9%.
Fig. 3. Novig weekly notional by product family. Shares inside each bar are of that week. 4 August to 14 September 2026, the whole published record. Source: The Prediction.
Volume has grown every week of that run, from $128 million in the first week to $306 million in the week the NFL season opened.
04 - Why the volume follows the sports calendar
Novig's volume follows the seasonality of the US sports calendar. We cannot dissect a parlay product, so the combo book is left out below, and it is likely those tickets are built from legs of the same sports.
Fig. 4. Novig notional by sport and league, parlays and combos excluded, which is $432 million of notional. Shares inside each bar are of that week, and segments under 4% are left unlabelled. 4 August to 14 September 2026, the whole published record. Source: The Prediction.
Ranked by Novig's own league tag, Major League Baseball (MLB) is $390 million, the biggest league on the platform and 53% of the $732 million of single-bet volume. NCAA football adds $91 million, the NFL $85 million, tennis $80 million and the WNBA $41 million.
Soccer comes to $24 million across eight competitions, about 2% of the book. No NBA volume appears at all, because the window falls in its off-season.
The flip is visible inside the window. In the first week, baseball was 73.9% of single-bet volume and football 1.6%. By the week the NFL opened, football was 54.7% and baseball 31.9%. The biggest sport on the platform changed completely in six weeks.
Fig. 5. Novig's twelve biggest markets, sport and bet type combined. Shares are of the whole $1.16B book. 4 August to 14 September 2026, the whole published record. Source: The Prediction.
Baseball moneyline is the biggest single market at $196 million, which is that MLB season showing up in one line.
American football sits low because its season opened five days before our data ends. Tennis is on the board because the US Open was being played.
05 - Parlays across the five US venues that list them
We have previously covered parlays heavily on Predicted. They are a growing product on prediction markets as those venues lean further into sports.
Novig is now one of five US venues that list a parlay product.
Fig. 6. Parlay and combo notional by venue, log scale. 4 August to 14 September 2026, a window in which all five were live and reporting every day. Source: The Prediction.
Over the same window, Novig traded $432 million (37% of its own book) of parlay notional volume, which is 1.3% of the $32.8 billion those five traded between them. Kalshi accounts for 92.6% of it.
Every prediction-market venue that lists combos is seeing combos take a bigger share of their own book.
Fig. 7. Combos as a share of each venue's own notional, by month. September 2025 to September 2026, where September 2026 runs to the 14th. Source: The Prediction.
Parlays were 16.8% of Kalshi's notional in March 2026 and 55.3% by September 2026.
Polymarket US listed none at all until August 2026, and they are already 32.8% of its volume. Underdog's UDX sits at 74.8%, DraftKings' DKeX ($DKNG ( ▼ 7.56% )) at 48.9%, and Novig at 39.1%. September 2026 runs only to the 14th, so those are half-month figures.
Novig is the only one of the five that lists sports and nothing else. Its 39.1% is therefore a share of a sports-only book. Kalshi's 55.3% carries elections, weather and macro data in its denominator, so the two are not measured against the same thing.
We cannot see what sits inside any of these combos. Novig publishes them with the legs hidden, and what we hold for the other four is a total rather than a composition, so none of this volume can be attributed to a sport.
06 - How many legs are on the Parlay ticket
Most parlays on Novig are low stakes. Two- and three-leg tickets are 57% of everything bought and carry 70% of the handle.
Fig. 8. Novig parlay tickets, notional and handle by number of legs. 4 August to 14 September 2026, the whole published record. Source: The Prediction.
Notional counts the prize on a winning ticket rather than the wager. This inflates the headline reported volume number. Six legs and up are 38% of Novig's parlay notional and 10% of its handle.
We found the same thing on Kalshi in our other combos research. Contracts priced under a cent were 8.9% of its combo trades and 1.3% of the cash, and the handle peaked around 26 cents rather than at the floor.
Novig's book is a year younger and a fraction of the size, but a similar trend to emerging across parlays in prediction markets.
07 - What we are watching
The calendar turning over. Novig's volume grew in every week of the window, from $128 million to $306 million, and the mix went from 73.9% baseball to 54.7% football in six weeks. That $306 million week ran on an NFL opening weekend and a live MLB season at the same time, and those two seasons overlap only in September.
A DCO application. Novig is the only US venue on our clearing map without one, and that works today because every trade is funded in full by both sides before it exists. An application would be a public filing, so it will be visible when it happens.
Combos taking more of the book. Novig's combos were 39.1% of its notional in September 2026.
Predicted is written by Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy. Every edition, our quarterly State of Prediction Markets reports and more at predicted.co.
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