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This is our roundup newsletter. A weekly curated list of the biggest things happening in prediction markets.
Our Q2 2026 report is still up. Prediction markets traded $111 billion in the quarter, more than 2024 and 2025 combined, across 70 pages of charts, and it is free. Read below 👇
Kalshi filed for CFTC and SEC approval to list the first single-stock perpetual futures (perps) in the US, Bloomberg reported on 11th September 2026.
Kalshi want roughly 60 contracts tied to US stocks and ETFs, including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, limited to companies worth more than $100 billion with average daily trading value above $450 million.
Perpetual futures are designed to trade 24/7, without an exchange's fixed hours, because they carry no expiration date.
Holders make periodic funding payments to each other that keep the contract's price anchored to the underlying asset, so the market never has to close in step with Nasdaq's own session.
Kalshi's existing perpetuals already show real appetite. Their crypto perps have posted $44 billion in notional volume since winning CFTC approval in late May 2026, and their 24/7 gold and silver perps are chasing the same demand.
Equities would be the third pillar of Kalshi’s perpetual-futures offering, alongside crypto and commodities.
Kalshi filed for a WTI crude-oil perpetual in early September 2026.
Opened its commodities hub in April 2026.
Plans to expand further into agricultural contracts.
Monthly commodity trade volume on event contracts had already surpassed $400 million by 8 September 2026.
Kalshi is trying to turn the regulatory approval it won for bitcoin perps into a multi-asset, 24/7 derivatives business spanning crypto, commodities and now equities.
This could put it on a collision course with CME Group ($CME ( ▲ 1.8% )), which is challenging the CFTC's approval framework for perpetuals by defending its position in markets where it has long been the incumbent.
Minnesota became the first state to pass a law banning Kalshi and Polymarket outright, threatening operators with felony charges rather than the civil enforcement other states have used (Nevada, New York, New Jersey, Utah, Connecticut and Wisconsin have all restricted or challenged the platforms through existing gambling law or enforcement action, not a new criminal statute).
Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC sued in federal court to block it, and Judge Katherine Menendez paused enforcement while the case proceeds, with a pretrial conference set for October 2026.
As we previously covered, the CFTC's fight with Minnesota is one of five.
The regulator has also sued Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois and New York over their own restrictions, arguing state bans undermine a federal regime Congress built more than 50 years ago.
Minnesota is the first state to try writing prediction markets out of the picture by statute rather than by enforcing its existing gambling law, which makes the case a test of a different legal route to the same ban.
Polymarket named four-time Fortune 500 CFO Warren Jenson as its first chief financial officer on 10th September 2026. Jenson was CFO at Amazon, Electronic Arts, Delta Air Lines and NBC earlier in his career, then most recently president and CFO of Nielsen, a post he left in January 2025.
He will set Polymarket's financial and capital strategy and build the finance function behind its next stage of growth.
This is Polymarket's clearest signal yet that it is building the reporting and controls a company needs before going public.
Robinhood ($HOOD ( ▲ 1.6% )) confirmed a multi-year agreement making OG.com the infrastructure and clearing provider behind its prediction markets, taking minority equity stakes in both OG.com and its parent Crypto.com as part of the deal, Sportico reported on 8th September 2026.
OG.com was valued at $5 billion following Citadel Securities' July investment, and Robinhood's stakes were priced off that same round.
Trades will be processed and settled through OG's CFTC-regulated exchange, with the rollout beginning in phases for eligible US customers immediately.
Crypto.com chief executive Kris Marszalek called the tie-up a "game changer" for both companies.
The deal is twofold.
For Crypto.com and OG, it gives a second major distribution channel beyond their own apps.
For Robinhood, it means likely favourable economics and a second CFTC-regulated venue for its event-contract flow, insurance against relying on Kalshi alone.
Robinhood did not wait. They started routing flow to OG straight away with college football.
Why Does Robinhood Want a Slice of Crypto.com?
Data as of 9th September 2026.
The timing also shows why Robinhood is treating event contracts as more than a product experiment.
Event-contract revenue reached $156 million in Q2, up more than 10 times year on year and ahead of both crypto trading ($100 million) and equities trading ($129 million), so securing more venue capacity and economics before the NFL season and the 2026 midterms is commercially logical.
The trade-off, however, is that a brokerage built around long-term investing is leaning further into short-duration, zero-sum event trading.
Football is likely to supply the immediate volume, but it also leaves open whether that engagement holds up outside major sports and election cycles, or whether customer losses, acquisition costs and regulatory pressure eventually constrain the category.
📊 This Week's Volumes
Source: The Prediction
🗝 General
Midterm elections are shaping up as big business for prediction markets, amid new scrutiny from election officials over how much it costs to move a market (Read more here)
Kalshi's election data goes live on DoubleZero ahead of the US midterms (Read more here)
StoneX sees 45% upside for Robinhood, pointing to its Layer 2 chain and prediction-market growth (Read more here)
🤝 Announcements & Partnerships
Kalshi launches "perps" for gold and silver following CFTC approval, expanding its futures offering (Read more here)
Kalshi signs Pete Sampras and Marshawn Lynch for new ad campaigns (Read more here)
Riot Games held sponsorship talks with both Polymarket and Kalshi for esports (Read more here)
💰 Funding & M&A
Tema ETFs launched DICE, the first pure-play ETF offering retail investors pre-IPO exposure to Kalshi and Polymarket through special-purpose vehicles, each at roughly 7.3% of fund assets (Read more here)
Kalshi's federal-licence case may return to the Ninth Circuit, while New Jersey has already taken its fight to the Supreme Court (Read more here)
⚖️ Regulation & Legal
Europe's top regulator questions Polymarket and Kalshi's EU access, warning of authorisation gaps (Read more here)
Citadel Securities urges the SEC to take oversight of some prediction-market wagers (Read more here)
VGW pays New York $8 million as Robinhood takes its own prediction-market fight to the Supreme Court (Read more here)
Connecticut targets prediction markets as state pressure keeps building (Read more here)
The UK's FCA is weighing whether to ease its ban on financial prediction markets (Read more here)
Predicted is written by Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy. Every edition, our quarterly State of Prediction Markets reports and more at predicted.co.
Disclaimers
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author's thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies, platforms, markets or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.
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When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks include price volatility, loss of capital, illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. You may not be protected under financial compensation schemes typically afforded to investors dealing with regulated entities. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.
