👋 Hey, welcome to Predicted, the newsletter covering the business of prediction markets.
Our quarterly report is BACK. With a bang.
Some headline numbers from the report 👇
💳 According to data from American Spend, the 11 states without legal sports betting are home to a third of US adults, but accounted for 55% of Kalshi's card deposits in September 2026.
🎓 In card spending observed in American Spend's data, 18 to 24 year olds account for 30% of Kalshi's card deposits, about twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel.
📈 Kalshi and Polymarket US now take 11% of card deposits against betting apps in the US in total, up from 3% in Q1 2026, according to data from American Spend.
🗺️ Kalshi's share of US prediction-market search demand rose from 23% to 34% in one quarter, with gains in all 50 states, according to Blask.
📊 $194.1Bn in notional volume, the biggest quarter ever and up 75% on Q2.
🇺🇸 US-regulated exchanges took 89% of notional volume, up from 69% in Q2.
🎯 Parlays (44%) overtook sports single events (39%) as the biggest share of US notional volume.
Or see some of our favourite slides below 👇
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01 - More than half of Kalshi's card money comes from states with no legal sports betting
According to data from American Spend, the 11 states without legal sports betting accounted for 55% of Kalshi's card deposits in September 2026. Those 11 states are home to a third of US adults.
Source: American Spend, US Census Bureau
In card spending observed in American Spend's data, 18 to 24 year olds account for 30% of Kalshi's card deposits, about twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Source: American Spend
And Kalshi and Polymarket US now take 11% of card deposits into the eight apps we track, up from 3% in Q1 2026.
Source: American Spend
The eight apps are Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Hard Rock Bet, Fanatics and PrizePicks.
Disc: Petrit Berisha, editor of Predicted, is an investor in American Spend.
02 - Americans now search for Polymarket and Kalshi more than any betting brand
According to search data from Blask, Polymarket and Kalshi each drove more US search demand than any betting brand.
Source: Blask
And Kalshi's share of US prediction-market search demand rose from 23% to 34% QoQ, with gains in all 50 states.
Source: Blask
03 - Prediction markets just had a $194.1 billion quarter
Prediction markets traded $194.1 billion in notional volume in Q3 2026, up 75% from Q2 and the sector's biggest quarter ever.
Source: The Prediction, Artemis
04 - Nine in every ten dollars now trade on US-regulated exchanges
US-regulated exchanges took 89% of notional volume in Q3 2026, up from 69% in Q2.
And Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for 91% of Q3 notional volume between them.
Source: The Prediction, Artemis
Predicted is written by Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy. Every edition, our quarterly State of Prediction Markets reports and more at predicted.co.
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author's thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies, platforms, markets or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.
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It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with prediction markets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your position could drop to zero), illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. Therefore, please be aware that when you place funds on prediction markets, you may not be protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.
