🖋️ This roundup was written and edited by Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy
We released our Q2 2026 report on Thursday. Prediction markets traded $111 billion in the quarter, more than 2024 and 2025 combined. Over 70 pages of charts, and it is free. Read below 👇
Polymarket is in early talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, per Bloomberg. In April they closed a $1 billion round at $15 billion: ICE's final $600 million tranche, plus roughly $400 million of new money from D.E. Shaw, G Squared and existing backers. That is a 33% mark-up in four months.
Kalshi’s last round valued them at $22 billion, and in July 2026 they accumulated $37.7 billion in volume, compared with Polymarket's $12.9 billion across both venues.
🧠 The offshore book shrank 26% in July while the American one grew 54%, and that is what investors are looking toward. The $20 billion valuation is betting (no pun intended) that the regulated US venue keeps compounding and eventually becomes the dominant part of the business. Everything they did this week- the Yankees, the ATP, Genius Sports- is positioning toward a stronger and more legitimate brand in the U.S.
🧠 The volume looks great for Kalshi, but 30%+ of it is now combos. And combos don’t pay the bills like single event swaps do. So on paper it looks like Kalshi’s volume is growing at a rate that is hard to catch, but the economics on much of this volume is slightly different.
2. The Federal Shield Is Not Holding (kinda)
Utah won a final federal judgment, a court refused to stop New York's lawsuit, Michigan saw off Coinbase, and Novig sued New York on their way in.
In our Q2 report we covered the CFTC suing five states to defend the platforms’ federal licence, while the states attacked through criminal filings and bans.
This week saw lots of action:
Utah is the first outright loss. A federal judge ruled Kalshi are not shielded from Utah’s anti-gambling law, making Utah the first state to secure a final federal judgment against the exchange rather than an interim injunction. Kalshi plans to appeal.
The CFTC could not stop New York. A court rejected the regulator’s attempt to block the state’s $36 billion suit, which we covered last week.
Michigan told Coinbase no. A judge denied Coinbase’s bid to block state enforcement of sports event contracts, in a ruling that called part of the argument “applesauce”.
And Novig sued New York. After Novig launched nationwide this week, they took New York to court.
Genius Sports signed Polymarket on 4 August and Kalshi on 5 August. The data supplier now provides the official data that settles contracts on both rival venues, covering the Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1, Liga MX and Argentina's Primera División. Both also join Genius's integrity programme, which lets leagues watch for irregular trading.
Polymarket’s deal adds exclusive US livestreaming rights and league intellectual property on selected competitions, Serie A among them. Genius shares ($GENI ( ▲ 0.07% )) rose on the news.
Settlement is where prediction markets have been weakest all year, from the Spotify chart manipulation to the hairdryer on a French weather sensor. One vendor now sits under the resolution layer of both venues.
We wrote a fortnight ago that the FanDuel and CME partnership was straining. It has now been carved up. CME keep 51% of FanDuel Predicts and keeps the financial markets, but all sports and novelties contracts move to the Crypto.com exchange.
Our Q2 report noted FanDuel filing for their own FCM in April, and Flutter is already market-making on a rival platforms.
Flutter called FanDuel Predicts revenue "not material" in Q2 and expect it to contribute nothing until 2027.
What is working is the other side: market-making brought in $6 million in the quarter, and is on track to drive $50 million annualised in 2026.
Source: Artemis
🗞 General
Fortune: Kalshi launch 'Blanket' to help small businesses hedge against risk (Read more here)
CoinDesk: how a five-second trick let traders drain millions from Polymarket (Read more here)
Kalshi crack down on insider trading as the Trump family look to increase their prediction-market presence (Read more here)
Sportradar Q2: prediction markets to deliver 'tens of millions' in revenue this year (Read more here)
🤝 Announcements & Partnerships
Polymarket become official prediction market provider to the ATP Tour (Read more here)
Novig launch nationwide, taking their sports trading platform across the country (Read more here)
Kalshi partner with Comply on trade surveillance as the insider-trading pressure builds (Read more here)
⚖️ Regulation & Legal
Senators urge the CFTC to curb wildfire prediction markets over arson concerns (Read more here)
The CFTC fine George Santos $35,000 for manipulating his own State of the Union market (Read more here)
Tribal leaders warn Congress that prediction markets bypass IGRA (Read more here)
Tribal regulators and senators push to add a prediction-markets provision to federal law (Read more here)
Sportico: the CFTC turn their attention to prediction-market conflicts of interest (Read more here)
US senators target wildfire bets in the new CFTC rule fight (Read more here)
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When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks include price volatility, loss of capital, illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. You may not be protected under financial compensation schemes typically afforded to investors dealing with regulated entities. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.
