🖋️ This roundup was written and edited by Omar El Safy and Pet Berisha
Our Q2 2026 report is still up. Prediction markets traded $111 billion in the quarter, more than 2024 and 2025 combined, across 70 pages of charts, and it is free. Read below 👇
On 1st September 2026, Polymarket closed a $1 billion round led by 1789 Capital, the venture firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. The round values Polymarket at $21 billion, up 40% from the $15 billion it was valued at in April 2026.
1789 Capital is putting in roughly $300 million of the round, on top of the $200 million it had already invested, making it one of Polymarket's largest backers. Trump Jr. joined Polymarket's advisory board in 2025.
Kalshi closed their own Series F at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026, and is reportedly in talks to raise at a $40bn+ valuation.
On 2nd September 2026, New Jersey's Attorney General petitioned the Supreme Court, asking it to decide whether the Commodity Exchange Act lets states apply their own gambling laws to Kalshi's sports contracts.
Two federal appeals courts have answered that question in opposite ways. As we previously covered on Predicted, the Ninth Circuit ruled on 28th August 2026 that Nevada could apply its own gambling law to Kalshi's sports contracts. The Third Circuit had ruled the opposite way on 6th April 2026, in Kalshi's own case against New Jersey, finding that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction.
A split between two circuits is the standard trigger for Supreme Court review, so let’s see where this leads…
Announced 4th September 2026, ParlayX raised a $1.25 million pre-seed round led by Dreamcraft Ventures. The company builds non-custodial order-routing, custody and capital-control infrastructure for institutional prediction-market trading, including an order execution management system that gives a desk unified visibility across venues.
They have onboarded four venues so far, Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless and ProphetX, with Novig and Polymarket US planned. The round's angels include Jeffrey Haas of ID8, Jack Corddry, formerly of Frax Finance, Devin Ardalan, President of US at EVG, and Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto.
Disclosure (and soft plug): Pet Berisha is an angel investor in ParlayX. If you want to get in touch, reply to this email!
🗞 General
Kalshi bans a former US Congress member for manipulation (Read more here)
LeBron James teases a Polymarket partnership in a new social video (Read more here)
Crypto exchange Gate enters prediction markets with a white-label builder for businesses (Read more here)
Options traders buy Robinhood calls as its prediction-market business gains steam $HOOD ( ▼ 2.09% ) (Read more here)
Kalshi's US web visits rose 1,500% as regulatory pressure mounts (Read more here)
Individual traders are moving from crypto to prediction markets, per the Wall Street Journal (Read more here)
Prediction markets change their odds format, putting them at odds with traders (Read more here)
🤝 Announcements & Partnerships
Kalshi to file for US crude oil "perps", source says (Read more here)
Polymarket launch perpetual oil futures in a 24/7 trading push (Read more here)
Polymarket launch crypto perpetual futures with up to 20x leverage (Read more here)
Kalshi becomes exclusive prediction-market partner of the US Open (Read more here)
Susquehanna's head of prediction markets hires an ex-Morgan Stanley trading head (Read more here)
Robinhood's prediction-market growth makes Morgan Stanley a bull $MS ( ▲ 0.26% ) (Read more here)
⚖️ Regulation & Legal
FCA weighs easing the UK's binary-options ban for prediction markets, as British consumers already trade on Kalshi and Polymarket despite the restriction (Read more here)
Underdog surrenders its fantasy-sports licence in seven states as it pivots toward prediction markets (Read more here)
The NFL tells prediction markets to remove "objectionable bets" ahead of the season (Read more here)
Illinois bill seeks to repeal the state's prediction-market tax amid legal challenges (Read more here)
Michigan extends its Kalshi sports-contract ban, sets a $500K daily penalty (Read more here)
Ken Paxton went after gambling in Texas but stays hands off on Kalshi (Read more here)
Young Kalshi users have traded an estimated $3.9 billion on sports and parlay-type contracts this year, exposing an under-21 age loophole (Read more here)
Kalshi and Polymarket's combined volume falls 15% in August, the first monthly decline in a year (Read more here)
Kalshi stops its sports injury-betting markets at the CFTC's request (Read more here)
Kalshi won't let you trade its own Supreme Court outcome (Read more here)
The CFTC asks a judge to dismiss CME's lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures $CME ( ▼ 0.27% ) (Read more here)
How a coming Supreme Court clash over prediction markets could reshape American betting (Read more here)
🌱 New Prediction Market Watchlist
Four newer platforms from this week's news.
Novig relaunches nationwide and already out-trades larger rivals Rothera and Underdog (Read more here)
Prospect Markets get direct exchange access through Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated CDNA (Read more here)
Mrkts launch as a white-label platform for prediction-market infrastructure (Read more here)
White Swan, the sportsbook quietly powering prediction markets (Read more here)
Disclaimers
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author's thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies, platforms, markets or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.
The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.
The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example, research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.
Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.
When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks include price volatility, loss of capital, illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. You may not be protected under financial compensation schemes typically afforded to investors dealing with regulated entities. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.
