# Predicted - The Business of Prediction Markets Newsletter

> The Business of Prediction Markets. See What's Coming.

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## Posts
- [The State of Prediction Markets, Q2 2026 [NEW REPORT]](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/prediction-market-report-q2-2026): Prediction markets traded $111 billion in Q2, more than 2024 and 2025 combined. The full report is out today, and it is free.
- [New York Want $36 Billion From Kalshi](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/new-york-want-36-billion-from-kalshi): News Roundup: New York sue Kalshi for $36 billion, IG Group buy Underdog for up to $2.15 billion, the CFTC sue five states, prediction markets post their biggest month ever, and parlays cost Kalshi traders $294 million. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [Robinhood Earn More From Prediction Markets Than Stocks or Crypto](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/robinhood-earn-more-from-prediction-markets-than-stocks-or-crypto): Event contracts hit $156 million in Q2, equating to 20% of trading revenue. 
- [Robinhood want more in Prediction Markets](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/washington-blocks-kalshi-wisconsin-threatens-voters-and-the-cftc-turns-on-its-own): News Roundup: Robinhood want more contracts, regulation heats up, app data shows sportsbook users are switching, FT investigation finds a $9M Polymarket account nobody will claim. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [The Ice Cream Hedge](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/the-ice-cream-hedge): An LA ice cream shop is paying 43% of its rent hedging weather contracts. But has the therm 'hedging' now got out of hand?
- [Underdog Open Their Own Exchange, Kalshi Price Compute, and the White House Gets Caught Betting](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/underdog-open-their-own-exchange-kalshi-price-compute-and-the-white-house-gets-caught-betting): News Roundup: Underdog go live on their own CFTC-licensed exchange, Kalshi launch forward curves for AI compute, and Trump's teleprompter operator gets caught betting on his words. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [Kalshi's Forward Curves Show Prediction Market Potential](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/kalshi-s-forward-curves-show-prediction-market-potential): Prediction markets are now building benchmarks for important markets that don't have them. 
- [Kalshi Lose New York, Wall Street Bans Bets, and Polymarket Wants Leverage](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/kalshi-lose-new-york-wall-street-bans-bets-and-polymarket-wants-leverage): News Roundup: Kalshi's court winning streak ends in Manhattan, Goldman ban staff from betting on finance, and Polymarket file to bring margin trading to the US. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [DraftKings Go Solo, Spotify's Rigged Charts, and a Senate Ban Bill](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/draftkings-go-solo-spotify-s-rigged-charts-and-a-senate-ban-bill): News Roundup: DraftKings launch their own exchange, a Kalshi trader catches Spotify chart fraud, and Congress takes its first bipartisan swing. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [Meta Want Prediction Markets. Why?](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/meta-want-prediction-markets-why): Zuckerberg ordered a prediction market app. For Meta? It is a good engagement toy and a bad business.
- [Polymarket Gets Probed,  Kalshi's $40bn Raise, and Zuck Wants PM ](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/polymarket-gets-probed-kalshi-s-40bn-raise-and-zuck-wants-pm): News Roundup: The regulators and the courts come for Polymarket. Kalshi are in talks to raise at a $40bn valuation. And Meta may be building their own PM. Plus, everything else in prediction markets this week.
- [Robinhood Enters the Chat](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/robinhood-enters-the-chat): The tech giant's prediction market product is picking up momentum... with a 20x increase in contracts traded in June. And it's all thanks to the World Cup. 
- [Why Don't Prediction Markets Pay You Sooner?](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/why-don-t-prediction-markets-pay-you-sooner): Live sports move in minutes, but settlement takes hours. How does that work for prediction markets?
- [A Bar in New York and a Spanish Football Club Hedge Their Future](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/a-bar-in-new-york-and-a-spanish-football-club-hedge-their-future): Hedging with Prediction Markets
- [How Big Is Kalshi's Combo (Parlay) Market, Really?](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/how-big-is-kalshi-s-combo-parlay-market-really): Kalshi launched its exotic combo (parlay) product on NFL opening day, September 17, 2025. In eight months, it processed $1.42 billion in handle from 30+ million trades. 
- [Do Parlays Pay the Bills?](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/do-parlays-pay-the-bills): Kalshi launched Combos (parlays) in September 2025. By April 2026 they were 22% of platform volume. 
- [Everyone's a Loser](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/everyone-s-a-loser): WSJ say that 67% of Polymarket profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. But what does this actually mean?
- [Who is the Customer? ](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/who-is-the-customer-7e4e): We're in a prediction markets supercycle. And everyone wants to intergrate them. But who is the customer?
- [Sports Trading Platform Novig Raise $75M Series B](https://newsletter.predicted.co/p/sports-trading-platform-novig-raise-75m-series-b)

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## Authors
- [Omar El Safy](https://newsletter.predicted.co/authors/omar-el-safy)
- [Pet Berisha](https://newsletter.predicted.co/authors/pet-berisha)
- [Omar El Safy](https://newsletter.predicted.co/authors/omar-el-safy)

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